Angola Elects — Issue #6
The final issue in our special series around the 2022 elections
Welcome to the last edition of Zitamar’s special series of the Angola Briefing, covering the 2022 general elections in the country.
This newsletter will go into hibernation again after this briefing; but Zitamar Consulting remains available to provide bespoke reports on the political and economic risk impacts of these contested elections. Write to consultancy@zitamar.com to find out more.
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On Tuesday, Unita submitted a formal challenge to the official results confirmed by election administration body CNE, that give the MPLA a slim overall majority, with 51% of the vote. Unita won just under 44%, according to the CNE’s “definitive” results (see below).
Unita, however, says it has other figures. A message circulating on WhatsApp, which the Angola Briefing has not yet been able to confirm, purports to show Unita claiming to have won 64.57% of the national vote, compared with just 24.4% for the MPLA.
By the end of Tuesday, however, the CNE had already rejected Unita’s complaints on technicalities, as well as another complaint lodged by the CASA-CE coalition. Unita could now appeal to the Constitutional Court, however, this court was quick to turn down similar appeals after the 2017 elections. Following the constitutional review in April 2021, Angolan legal experts have even less confidence in the independence of the judiciary today.
Meanwhile, the civil society parallel counting organisation ‘Mudei’, linked to activist and musician Luaty Beirão, has launched a petition calling on both the CNE and Unita to publicly release the result sheets on which they are basing their opposing claims. The petition has almost 29,000 signatures at the time of writing — and the organisation delivered a printed copy of all the names to the CNE yesterday.
Greater transparency now seems to be the best that voters, frustrated with yet another questionable win for the MPLA, can hope for. But the opposition can also reflect on its best result ever — and consider how it might go one better in 2027.
Below we publish a translation of our correspondent’s final dispatch from Angola — reflecting on Unita’s historic result, in particular in the Angolan capital of Luanda, and the party’s chances of building on this for the next elections in 2027.
From Quifangondo, to 24 August
In 1975, on the eve of independence, with the help of a small Cuban expeditionary corps, the MPLA repelled a powerful FNLA military column at the gates of Luanda, supported by Portuguese mercenaries, regular troops from what was then Zaire, and artillerymen of the South African army.
With the famous battle of Quifangondo, fought 26 kilometres from the capital city, the MPLA expelled the FNLA and Unita from Luanda, then a movement with very little presence in the region. Agostinho Neto, with the sound of artillery in the background, the famous B-10 and BM-21 also known as “Stalin's organs”, proclaimed Angola's independence on the night of 11 November.
Luanda consolidated its position as a stronghold of the MPLA, which it continued to be in all multiparty elections held since 1992.
Until August 24, 2022.
Under the leadership of Adalberto da Costa Júnior (ACJ), Unita won 62.25% of the votes in the capital, against 33.62% for the MPLA. Of a total of 2 million votes, Unita won 1.2 million versus 672,000 votes for the party led by João Lourenço. Luanda officially has nine million inhabitants, and more than a third of the national electorate.
What explains the MPLA's hecatomb? A young population — 64% under the age of 25 — that has never heard of the battle of Quifangondo, a formal unemployment rate of 40%, social networks that are the alternative to the unnatural intoxication of the public media, the economic crisis and covid-19, a campaign against corruption that was perceived as an inter-factional struggle within the MPLA itself. That's why the Unita vote in neighbourhoods like Alvalade, Maianga, Talatona, where the elite live, but who are revolted by the designation of “marimbondos” given by JLo, as the president is known. A new Unita of catchy speeches digging into the opponent's weaknesses.
With the evolving situation, in which Unita has not yet accepted the results, it is difficult to predict the political future of Angola and the MPLA. The hegemonic party has lost its two-thirds majority and 26 deputies, it has lost Luanda and its top activists are well aware of the extent of the damage to the country. The numbers of the population and of the electoral roll have been greatly inflated, meaning in reality turnout was much higher, so the losses are more concrete.
Depending on the MPLA's ability or inability to reinvent itself, all Unita may need to do is wait five years to consolidate the 2022 results, because oil does not solve everything and the tide of high prices is not going to last.
It remains to be seen whether the formidable coalition behind Adalberto da Costa Júnior, an engineer by training but clearly the architect of the new, modern, urban and future-oriented Unita, can last that long. Abel Chivukuvuku, Filomeno Vieira Lopes, Nelson Pestana and Justino Pinto de Andrade are heavyweights of what they proclaim as the “national team”. But often, egos end up speaking louder than the strategies of the long-distance runners.
As one Angolan commentator said, quoting Roman Emperor Julius Caesar: Alea jacta est — the die is cast.
Fernando Lima (Zitamar News / Canal de Moçambique / @Verdade consortium)